Who will win the ITM Cup?
The greulling schedule has proven difficult for players and coaching staff. No team has been able to establish a dominant run of form.
Just 9 points separate the 7 teams in the Permiership going into the final round.
A mere 4 poitns separate first placed Canterbury from 5th placed Auckland.
Defenses have been stretched. The NPC is typically a competition with more attacking prowess than defense. That said, there were some very tight Ranfurly Shield encounters in Invercargill.
Where they are at
1. Canterbury
One week, Canterbury exerts their rennaisance with a dominant display over high-flying Taranaki (27-0) and the next week they are beaten by Bay of Plenty whose form appeared to have left them after 4 straight defeats.
The Cantabs beat Auckland in a high-scoring and exciting opening match at Eden Park. Then they lost the Ranfurly Shield to Southland in a 3 point nail biter.
They lost again to Wellington but won their next 2 as they started to gather momentum.
3. Taranaki
After losing their first match to Wellington, they got it together, notching up 5 wins in a row before faltering badly to Canterbury (27-0) but then bouncing back to win the Ranfurly Shield from Southland in a nail-biter.
Should they make the final, I believe they have the team and the poise to win this year. All the talk has been about Aaron Cruden and fair enough as the kid is going very well but Taranaki’s playmaker Beauden Barrett has the head for big games and could yet emerge the heir apparent to Dan Carter.
2. Waikato
Waikato registered some big wins in the middle of the competition including beating Canterbury in Christchurch before being stopped in their tracks by a rampant Manawatu side who put 54 points on the Mooloo men.
They shook that loss off to beat Wellington in their last outing but have lacked consistency.
So what’s going to happen from here?
Waikato (currently in 2nd place with 28 points) play Auckland (5th with 25 points).
This should be a classic encounter with everything to play for. Waikato will think they have an edge up front but Charlie Famuina is back to his devastating best. Waikato aren’t the same attacking force withotu Steven Donald. Trent Renata just doesn’t get the most out of a talented backline. Auckland will look to exploit that.
Canterbury (1st/29 points) play Otago
Otago are playing for pride and will not be doing any favours for their nothern neighbours.
Despite going into the final round on top, if Canterbury falter they will probably not make the final.
Southland (7th/20 points) host Bay of Plenty (4th/26 points)
Bay of Plenty are only 3 points off first placed Canterbury so they have everything to play for in their last match of the season at Invercargill’s Rugby Park.
Southland on the other hand are playing for their lives. They lost the Shield in their last outing and are facing relegation. They may know their fate going into this match should Wellington beat North Harbour in their last outing on Friday night. It may be down to pride for the southerners.
Taranaki (3rd/27 points) host Hawkes Bay in their first Ranfurly Shield defense.
The Magpies are guaranteed a place in the Championship final where they will play Manawatu but they are not only playing for the Ranfurly Shield, with a victory they could wrestle home advantage from Manawatu for their final that will determine who will go up into the Premiership next season.
A wonderful match awaits.
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