NPC
Who will win the ITM Cup?
0The greulling schedule has proven difficult for players and coaching staff. No team has been able to establish a dominant run of form.
Just 9 points separate the 7 teams in the Permiership going into the final round.
A mere 4 poitns separate first placed Canterbury from 5th placed Auckland.
Defenses have been stretched. The NPC is typically a competition with more attacking prowess than defense. That said, there were some very tight Ranfurly Shield encounters in Invercargill.
Where they are at
1. Canterbury
One week, Canterbury exerts their rennaisance with a dominant display over high-flying Taranaki (27-0) and the next week they are beaten by Bay of Plenty whose form appeared to have left them after 4 straight defeats.
The Cantabs beat Auckland in a high-scoring and exciting opening match at Eden Park. Then they lost the Ranfurly Shield to Southland in a 3 point nail biter.
They lost again to Wellington but won their next 2 as they started to gather momentum.
3. Taranaki
After losing their first match to Wellington, they got it together, notching up 5 wins in a row before faltering badly to Canterbury (27-0) but then bouncing back to win the Ranfurly Shield from Southland in a nail-biter.
Should they make the final, I believe they have the team and the poise to win this year. All the talk has been about Aaron Cruden and fair enough as the kid is going very well but Taranaki’s playmaker Beauden Barrett has the head for big games and could yet emerge the heir apparent to Dan Carter.
2. Waikato
Waikato registered some big wins in the middle of the competition including beating Canterbury in Christchurch before being stopped in their tracks by a rampant Manawatu side who put 54 points on the Mooloo men.
They shook that loss off to beat Wellington in their last outing but have lacked consistency.
So what’s going to happen from here?
Waikato (currently in 2nd place with 28 points) play Auckland (5th with 25 points).
This should be a classic encounter with everything to play for. Waikato will think they have an edge up front but Charlie Famuina is back to his devastating best. Waikato aren’t the same attacking force withotu Steven Donald. Trent Renata just doesn’t get the most out of a talented backline. Auckland will look to exploit that.
Canterbury (1st/29 points) play Otago
Otago are playing for pride and will not be doing any favours for their nothern neighbours.
Despite going into the final round on top, if Canterbury falter they will probably not make the final.
Southland (7th/20 points) host Bay of Plenty (4th/26 points)
Bay of Plenty are only 3 points off first placed Canterbury so they have everything to play for in their last match of the season at Invercargill’s Rugby Park.
Southland on the other hand are playing for their lives. They lost the Shield in their last outing and are facing relegation. They may know their fate going into this match should Wellington beat North Harbour in their last outing on Friday night. It may be down to pride for the southerners.
Taranaki (3rd/27 points) host Hawkes Bay in their first Ranfurly Shield defense.
The Magpies are guaranteed a place in the Championship final where they will play Manawatu but they are not only playing for the Ranfurly Shield, with a victory they could wrestle home advantage from Manawatu for their final that will determine who will go up into the Premiership next season.
A wonderful match awaits.
Themes in this year’s NPC #1 Returning ex-pats
0I’ve talked about the amount of departures from New Zealand rugby that have happened over the past 12 months. And there are more planned after the World Cup.
But it’s not all one-way traffic.
In 2011 we have seen the return of some very capable players to the ITM Cup (NPC). These guys are making a significant contribution and doing their part to enhance the great spectacle that is NPC rugby.
Tony Brown (Otago)
The ex-All Black returned to New Zealand to help out the Highlanders in this year’s Super Rugby competition after they were hit by a series of injuries.
Brown then took to the field for Otago in the ITM Cup and is going great guns for Otago challenging the line, directing play and creating opportunities for others.
His age is not a factor, he’s playing well and has been a large part of the Highlanders and Oago’s resurgence over the last 6 months. It’s great to have him back.
Willie Walker (North Harbour)
Willie Walker played for North Harbour against Bay of Plenty in the second match of the season and he went well, slotting into fullback like he never left.
Willie Walker - 1 of several Kiwis who have made a return to NPC this year
Bryce Williams (Northland)
The ex-Auckland lock is in the middle of the Taniwha pack. He’s doing the hard yards, calling the lineouts and getting around the paddock. Northland lost Dean Budd to Japan but Williams more than makes up for the gap left in the Taniwha lineout.
Williams may get an opportunity for the Blues in 2012
Jamie Nutbrown (Bay of Plenty)
When I heard Nutbrown was coming back to the Bay I assumed that the man who replaced him – Taniela Moa – was away off somewhere else. Moa had done very well for the Steamers last season, scoring a hatfull of tries and providing strong distribution from the base of the ruck.
But in a truncated season where teams play 3 times in the space of 7 days, a strong squad is critical so the Bay are lucky to have 2 highly competent number 9s this season.
Brent Wilson (North Harbour)
The rangy loose forward started the NPC season with a blinder in Dunedin. He has been away for a few years but hasn’t lost any sharpness. North Harbour need experience as they try and get out of a slump and huge number 8 Matt Luamanu needs a mentor who will keep him honest and focused.
Rudi Wulf (North Harbour)
Another player who was not away for long, Wulf has returned to provide much needed penetration in the struggling North Harbour midfield. His strength, speed and good form should see him return to the Blues in next season’s Super Rugby competition.
Dave Bright (Tasman)
The hard working loose forward is somewhat of a professional rugby journeyman who plays in both hemispheres. He was last in Tasman in 2009 and is a welcome addition this season providing go forward and hardened experience.
Reuben Thorne
Canterbury legend and ex-All Black captain, Reuben Thorne is back in the red and black jersey helping the young Canterbury side as they compete in a tough competition with none of their All Blacks. He’s been coming off the bench but the experience on and off the field is invaluable for Canterbury as they look to bring on their next tier players.
Not every returning ex-pat has made a great contribution however …
How financially sustainable is NPC rugby?
0Answer: Not very!
If rugby stronghold Waikato cannot break even, then what hope is there for the rest?
Crowds at matches seem to be the biggest issue but if 5 big Ranfurly Shield defences cannot bolster Southland’s coffers, then the answer lies elsewhere.
Apparently Tasman have it – the reality is that the only way through is to cut back on player payments.
That’s how they managed to make a profit and it’s how other unions are going to dig themselves out of debt too.
Southland are the ones in the headlines but Waikato and Bay of Plenty aren’t far behind – and I suspect there are plenty of others in trouble also.
Big sponsors are hard to get these days and a lot of effort is required to keep a network of smaller sponsors happy but that’s the reality.
Is Super Rugby cannibalizing NPC revenues?
To a certain degree I think this is true but the pendulum may be swinging back and the NPC may just have more potential
- Super Rugby tickets cost a little more
- There are new jerseys each year for supporters to buy
- The spectacle is very commercial and corporate rather than grass roots?
- There’s more travel required to see the games
- Several franchises have yet to galvanize a genuine support base
But people love the NPC – even with no All Blacks playing. It’s more ‘real’, it resembles the first rugby matches our fathers took us to.
The players all had jobs, the stands were all wooden and the first 3 rows were for old men who would always yell ‘out’ as soon as the ball emerged from a ruck or scrum. Where a pie was the only food available and black sauce was the accompaniment.
NPC is grass roots and retains the ‘our boys doing battle in our colours for our town’ feel to it.
Most venues have a wonderful mix of old and new.
- The Tui truck at FMG stadium off-sets the Bucketheads Stand beautifully
- The terraces at Rugby Park in Invervargill are still the place to watch a match with a pie and a few cans
- The terraced seating in Whangarei and in Rotorua have a similar feel and off-set the new, modest-sized stands
- Despite the speedway track around the outside, the Bay Park crowd in Mt Maunganui feel close to the action and a decent sub-set congregate in the bar both before and after matches
So what will happen when NPC player salaries are cut across the board?
My feeling is that only a handful of NPC players would leave New Zealand in 2011 for better deals off-shore.
There are 2 reasons for this
- Market saturation
After the World Cup, the market will be awash with top internationals from the Southern Hemisphere looking for contracts and so the second tier players will hardly get a look in. - More opportunities for super rugby in 2012 – The knock-on effect
All Blacks (and other super rugby players) leaving NZ means there will be more opportunities for NPC players to step and – and hence get paid more.
So there is plenty of incentive for NPC players to stick around for the 2011 NPC season even if they are facing a pay cut.
What about 2012 and beyond?
The New Zealand Rugby Union will be hoping to make a wad of cash out of the World Cup so they can weather the storm of a quiet super rugby season in 2012.
It’s highly likely that kiwi rugby fans will be rugby’d-out after hosting the World Cup – and that’s whether we win it or not.
Attendance in the early rounds of super rugby matches is usually poor anyway because they are played in the New Zealand summer where punters are enjoying the beach, sevens rugby and 20-20 cricket. And if you’re in Wellington or like football, then you will be hoping to be at Pheonix football matches where the local side are challenging for the title like in 2010 when they got twice as many fans to Westpac Stadium than the Hurricanes got in their first 2 Super 14 matches.
Hopefully the rugby public will be ready for more code when the 2012 NPC rolls around.
The NPC in 2012 and beyond
Super rugby contracts will require those guys to stick around for the NPC but others may start seriously looking elsewhere.
But there needs to be some creative and innovative thinking to ensure that New Zealand has a commercially viable rugby product.
Personally, I prefer NPC and would rather see the current Super 15 and tri-nations ditched in favour of something more aligned to NZ, Australia and the pacific but I can’t see that happening.
Is Mike Delaney off to Japan?
2
Despite being the Chief’s first choice at fly half by the end of the 2010 super rugby season, Bay of Plenty number 10 Mike Delaney has been on the outer since returning from surgery to his injured shoulder in the middle of last year.
We voiced our concerns about Delaney’s future in New Zealand rugby back in October. Now it seems to have come to fruition as he looks to secure his financial future with a lucrative contract in Japan.
He was overlooked for All Black selection on the end of year tour to Hong Kong and the UK last year. Despite indifferent super rugby form, Stephen Donald was preferred as Dan Carter’s backup after a strong NPC season.
At the time of selection All Black coach Graham Henry talked of Aaron Cruden and Colin Slade as potential options in the first five eighth position. Delaney did not rate a mention.
As it happened, Donald did not have a great tour. He came on against Australia in Hong Kong and made several critical errors and was crucified in the press.
But is seems Delaney is not waiting around and you can’t blame him. The marketplace will be a different scene in the aftermath of the World Cup where there could be a lot of international class players looking for deals.
We believe it will be one of the main reasons why the Super 15 will struggle to gain New Zealand interest in 2012.
What happened to Hawkes Bay this season?
0
Just a slow start?
3 losses and a draw in their first 4 games proved too tough to come back from for Hawkes Bay in this year’s NPC competition.
Semi-finalists for the last 2 seasons, the Napier-based outfit did not register a win until round 5 and will play in the ‘bottom 7′ of next years NPC Competition.
The magpies have too much talent and team spirit to stay down for long. Their roster includes some big names:
- Zac Guildford, Israel Dagg, Hikawera Elliot, Karl Lowe, Brynn Evans, Ross Kennedy, Jason Shoemark, Kahn Fotuali’i
Hawkes Bay revived their season with a string of good performances winning 4 of their last 5 matches.
The real damage may have been the draws
The magpies had 3 draws this season and although these have been against top opposition (Canbterbury, Waikato and Auckland) – sharing points in close matches seriously damages semi-final prospects – especially when the win was so close (like a last second kick against Auckland in round 9).
2010 NPC Record
| Round | Result | Opponent |
| 1 | draw | Canbury |
| 2 | loss | Bay of Plenty |
| 3 | loss | Tasman |
| 4 | loss | Southland |
| 5 | win | Manawatu |
| 6 | draw | Otago |
| 7 | loss | Waikato |
| 8 | loss | Wellington |
| 9 | win | Taranaki |
| 10 | draw | Auckland |
| 11 | win | Northland |
| 12 | win | North Harbour |
| 13 | win | Counties/Manukau |
What effect will their performance have on the Super Rugby prospects of their players?
The form of an NPC team is the biggest prospect for their players when it comes to gaining Super Rugby contracts.
Changes year-on-year.
- Southland will probably have a considerable amount of influence in the Otago team againthis time around
- There will continue to be a strong contingent of Bay of Plenty players in the Chiefs squad
- The teams at the bottom of the table – Manawatu, Northland, North Harbour, Otago will have scant representation and this includes Hawkes Bay
David Holwell hangs up his boots … again
1Only this time it seems a little more serious …
The blood on his lip is characteristic of the fearless Holwell - a great servant to the game
Holwell went out with a bang, scoring a try in Northland’s victory over Bay of Plenty in the last match of the 2010 NPC season.
It was not the best run for the Taniwha but then it wasn’t the worst either.
- They finished with 29 points, 5 wins out of 13 and 9 bonus points
- Northand registered a record 77-8 win (over Manawatu)
- Rene Ranger debuted for the All Blacks (and scored a try)
Holwell gave a short speech afterward in the bar surrounded by friends and loyal supporters – a fitting tribute to a legend of the game.
It was a privilege to have been there. Here’s my record of the occasion.
If Southland lose this, their season will stutter
0The Shield has been a huge boost to the Stags, as it would be to any team. But the loss to Taranaki last week comes at the wrong end of the season.
While not at 100% just yet, Canterbury are improving. They are winning the tight games, building in confidence and they have genuine game-breakers.
The Stags need to finish on top of the table to have a realistic chance of winning the ITM Cup.
Any team will need home advantage if they are to beat the current champions and Southland can take a huge step towards achieving this on Saturday.
The downside is that if they lose, they then travel to Tauranga where they have not had much success of late.
The Bay are on the rise. They play well as a team and will be very motivated in front of their home crowd with a potential top 4 finish in their sights.
Heading north with the Shield tucked away and being on top of the competition will be a different proposition entirely.
Go the Stags!
I love Manawatu’s spirit … but they just aren’t an 80 minute team
0Their fans are loyal, their players are committed and their Union is very hospitable.
FMG Stadium is a great place to watch rugby. Bucket heads on the terrace, dancing crowds and a truck full of Tui make rugby in Palmie is a true spectacle.
Unfortunately results have not gone their way this season but it’s not hard to see why – they are not focused for the full 80 minutes.
Lapses in concentration cost them dearly. They should have beaten Canterbury but squandered a healthy lead to a team that was enough out of sorts to be beaten.
It’s frustrating because as an underdog you know that they have earned every point they have and they will need everything they can get to remain financially viable in the top flight.
The wheels fell off against Northland where Manawatu were trounced by 69 points. After a loss to Hawkes Bay the following week, it was a remarkable comeback to beat Wellington in their next outing.
But the Turbos simply cannot afford to have key players out with injury.
- Nick Crosswell has been impressive the last 2 seasons, fully deserving a stint of Super 14 rugby but their forward pack are not the same without him
- Take out the next leader in line (Grant Polson) and things start to look a little shaky – which is how things were for much of the match against Bay of Plenty
- Johnny Leota has been a big loss. Shannon Paku is a journeyman at best, incapable of the bursting runs and big hits of Leota
- Aaron Cruden’s elevation to All Black status is great for the kid but it has made for a makeshift back line where players have been shuffled around like a deck of cards
Bottom line: The Turbos were poor against Bay of Plenty. They miss key players and lack focus at critical times during matches. The players who have come in have not done the job of the guys they have replaced.
Sad but true …
Many more have made their move away
2There have been more off-season movements in NPC player ranks than ever before.
The 2 major reasons:
- Players jockeying for starting positions to impress for 2011 Super 14 spots
If you aren’t playing Super 14, your chances of World Cup selection are nil - Players taking off-shore contracts before the anticipated glut of supply following the 2011 World Cup
1. Some of the significant movers
- All Black Lelia Masaga switches to the Bay of Plenty
Interesting move. He wasn’t under any selection threat and the Bay didn’t finish that much higher on the table than Counties but they probably have higher prospects in 2010 - Taniela Moa switches to the Bay of Plenty
Once touted as an All Black contender, Moa wasn’t even playing Super 14 this year and has chosen to move to try and improve prospects. Perhaps there’s a ‘change of scenery’ aspect as Toby Morland is not a guy you would have thought Moa would be afraid of (perhaps the prospect of Abli Matthewson in 2011 was more concerning) - Robbie Fruean moves to Canterbury from Wellington
Fruean will be relishing the prospect of playing alongside Sonny-Bill Williams in what could be the most exciting and potent centre pairings. It remains to be seen whether the Canterbury coaching staff will play 2 such raw talents next to each other but I hope they do - Tyson Keats moves to Taranaki
The ‘Naki have been busy in the off season. Keats would have been vying for game-time with Andy Ellis and so has made a positive move. He played well at Super 14 level and is definitely a prospect in what will be a fierce half-back battle in 2011. He should work well with Willie Repia - Kahn Fotuali’i leaves Tasman for Hawkes Bay
The form half back in the Super 14 this year, Fotuali’i suffered from a small off-field indiscretion. A move to a team in good form will help his prospects but there was nothing wrong with the way Tasman played their rugby - Sona Taumalolo joins Waikato
This will be a big loss for the Magpies. In recent months, it’s become clear that Clint Newland was not the force in the front row for the Bay Boys. Taumalolo’s strength and try-scoring exploits will be missed. A great acquisition for Waikato who could have the best front row if Ben May is fit - Steven Setephano joins Waikato
Off-setting the loss of Sione Lauaki overseas, Setephano will add some go-forward from the base of what should be an awesome scrum. With Liam Messam with the All Blacks, Setephano will get a chance to shine this season in a pack that should be going forward - Kurt Baker, Andre Taylor leave Manawatu for Taranaki
This is an interesting move for Baker because Taylor was his competition at full-back for Manawatu most of the last 2 seasons. Andre Taylor is listed as a wing on the Amber and Blacks website with David Smith the only other stated wing so perhaps that’s how things will play out. George Pisi is down as midfield but will no doubt provide cover if needed.
2. Significant Departures
The loss of so many second-tier and genuine prospects is alarming.
It is clear that new Zealand provincial rugby offers too little security and too little financial reward for fringe internationals and Super 14 journeymen to wait for an opportunity.
1. Anthony Tuitavake (Japan)
Anthony Tuitavake - a major loss to NZ rugby
More unlucky with selection than Hosea Gear … ‘nuf said
2. Tim Bateman (Japan)
Not waiting to compete for positions in the Canterbury midfield with Robbie Fruean and Sonny-Bill Williams, Bateman is off
3. Ti’i Paulo (Clermont, France)
Wasn’t really under serious competition threats as Corey Flynn is with the All Blacks but there’s way more money playing in France …
4. Tasesa Lavea (Clermont, France)
Another to already have been playing in Europe. Did a good job for Counties Manukau last season
5. George Naoupo (Japan)
Was already seen in the Magner’s League this year
6. Thomas Waldrom (Leicester, England)
A shame for Hawkes Bay. With Naoupu leaving also. There will be chances for other loose forwards
7. Viliame Ma’afu (Japan)
Had a great Super 14 with the Blues. Really coming into his own but as a Tongan international, he is unlikely to receive any favours from the NZRFU
8. Michael Paterson (Cardiff, Wales)
Another serious All Black prospect to leave after a great Super 14 with the Hurricanes. Similar to Tamati Ellison, taking the money on offer now rather than wait.
9. Rudi Wulf (Toulon, France)
probably lucky to have been an All Black but still a capable player and along with the above, huge losses for an underperformed North Harbour
10. Tamati Ellison (Japan)
We already knew about this one but he’s not the only top-ranked player to bail in 2010
11. Jason Kauwau (Japan)
Honest servant for Southland and Highlanders
12. Callum Bruce (Japan)
Another handy, second-tier player
13. Sione Lauaki (Clermont, France)
Unlikely to have featured in New Zealand rugby anyway after a series of falls from grace but once a force with ball in hand
14. Karne Hesketh (Japan)
The hard-running Otago wing failed to win a Super Rugby contract for 2010 and so headed off before the NPC
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