Few surprises in 2012 Super Rugby squads

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27 new players and 28 players have moved on (or been left out). Rudi Wulf (Blues) and Tamati Ellison (Highlanders) are back.

The exclusion of North Harbour’s Matt Luamanu was the only real surprise for me. The big number 8 had made significant strides after moving north from Wellington. He is difficult to stop and has improved his fitness. It is surprising to imagine that there is no place for him at the next level.

Also to miss out in that position were Bay of Plenty captain Colin Bourke and Canterbury’s Ash Parker.

Alex Bradley (Chiefs); Elliot Dixon (Highlanders) and Nick Crosswell (Highlanders) are a bit lucky to be considered ahead of Luamanu, Bourke and Parker.

Declan O’Donnell (Waikato, NZ Sevens) is a bolter in the Chiefs. There are more experienced outsides in the region like sevens team mate Tim Mikkleson and Henry Speight.

Perhaps O’Donnell’s age was to his advantage. Getting a young guy into the full-time professional environs of Super Rugby can only be a good thing.

All Blacks not going to RWC 2015 – What is Tew playing at?

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New Zealand Rugby Union CEO Steve Tew says that the rules around sponsorship revenue at the world cup may mean the All Blacks won’t play.

He’s threatening to take his ball and go home.

What an idiot!

  1. Tew is not smart enough to play games in the press – this guy is no Alec Ferguson
  2. He is supoosed to be the leader of the biggest brand in world rugby and he’s crying because he’s got no money!
  3. New Zealand have gambled before with RWC … and lost (the rights to co-host RWC 2003)
  4. How stupid will he look if New Zealand do not win?
    ['We aren't playing any more because you don't let us win']

Tew is banking on the notion that a world cup without New Zealand would not be a world cup.

The threat would carry more impetus if the All Blacks were the reigning champions. What would it look like if New Zealand finish where they did in 2007 – Losing quarter finalists.

They were not in the top 4!

The management of rugby in New Zealand is not in the hands of innovative, strategic thinkers. These guys are narrow-minded and very limited in their ideas.

God help us!

4 perspectives on Sonny-Bill Williams

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I’ve been avoiding wading in on the Sonny-Bill Williams saga because it’s being done to death in the papers so here’s 4 perspectives

1. End the hurt – get everyone you can

New Zealand haven’t won the World Cup since the first one in 1987

That’s 24 years and 5 cups that we have gone without and it hurts – a lot!

For a nation that prides itself on producing the best rugby players and has the best rugby team, we aren’t doing it when it really matters.

We are the England of football. They won the football world cup in 1966 when they hosted it and haven’t won it since - despite a lot of their fans thinking/expecting that they should.

Brazil are treated like the favourites almost every time a football World Cup is played, just like the All Blacks in rugby. But Brazil have won 5 out of 19 football world cups, a 23.6% success rate.

We have won the rugby World Cup once out of 6 times, which is a 16.66% success rate.

Australia and South Africa are at 20% with 2 wins each and we are with England on one win.

New Zealand is the third equal performing rugby team in world cup history

We demanded that the Rugby Union take action and they tried to get the best players for this World Cup

They went out to entice some of our top players back and recruit Sony-Bill Williams

  • Karl Hayman
  • Nick Evans
  • Luke McAllister
  • Chris Jack
  • Aaron Mauger

Two of the ex-pats came back but neither have made the squad.

Luke McAllister was one of the standouts of the 2007 World Cup. He was making breaks and creating tries. He also backs up at first five eigth, a potential problem area for the All Blacks.

McAllister had a great season with Sale in the English Premiershi and came back to play in the World Cup but it didn’t work out.

We got SBW - and good on the Union for that.

2. In the modern game the All Blacks need X-Factor to win a World Cup

New Zealand has tried to play platform, highly disciplined rugby in the past but it didn’t work that well.

John Mitchell had a very regimented playing style and it resulted in a bad loss at home to England in the lead up to the 2003 World Cup and a loss to Australia the following year in the semi-final.

Why doesn’t a conservative, platform-oriented style work?

  1. We aren’t as big as many of our opponents (South Africa; England)
  2. Set pieces aren’t the focus of New Zealand (domestic) rugby
    so we don’t have a culture of scrum and mauling; and our lineout has been shakey under pressure 

Ours is a fast, expansive game. Australia proved last weekend that this can be shut down.

We need exceptional individual players in key positions.

Chris Laidlaw talked about x-factor in the lead up to the 2003 World Cup. He was concerned about the style of pley we would adopt and where tries might come from. Basically, we could compete at several areas of play but lacked penetration and genuine try-scoring ability.

We have more of that now than before, but the argument is simple

  • New Zealand needs serious x-factor
  • Sonny-Bill has serious x-factor (regardless if it has yet to be exploited to its maximum potential)

3. There really isn’t that much competition at second five

The only centre-playing guy I’d like to see in the squad who isn’t there is Rene Ranger – and he is injured.

Ranger is a risky player but I believe he should be given more opportunities to see if he can reduce his error rate on the international stage. Ranger scores tries that other players cannot.

After Ranger, New Zealand does not have a lot of elite talent in the centres at the moment. Robbie Freuen is the exception and he plays centre, not second five.

Conrad Smith and Richard Kahui are in front of him at the moment. Perhaps he should have been given a chance before now.

4. There’s still time to see SBW at his full potential

I personally would have loved to see Sonny Bill play sevens. He was rushed into top rugby in France and rushed into it in New Zealand and we never got to see him run, pass and tackle in the more open format of sevens rugby.

There are 4 less players on a rugby league field and I think sevens rugby would have helped his transition. It has worked wonders for many other players.

Jonah Lomu sparked the interest of everyone including coaches and selectors when he was running in the open spaces of Hong Kong Stadium in 1994 as an 18 year old schoolboy. He was not even in the frame for the 95 World Cup at the time.

In fact, he was back in Hong Kong the following year just 2 months out from the World Cup in South Africa still not considered a world cup prospect. 

Jonah Lomu was a very late inclusion in the 1995 World Cup team and his impact is the stuff of legend

We need players running off SBW when he has the ball and we need him threatening the line more.

When he played league – defenses were in 2 minds when he was running. Stop the man and then try to cover the guys he might pass two while you are trying to stop him because he can get the pass away with 3 men on him.

Tries got scored off his back-flip passes. It’s up to All Black tacticians to make the most of the talent that is SBW.

There is still time to see him at his best in a black jersey. If we do not, then those responsible for his development have just as much to answer as he does.

As for the 2012 super rugby and NPC competitions?

Who cares!

Win the World Cup

End the Hurt

Who will win the ITM Cup?

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The greulling schedule has proven difficult for players and coaching staff. No team has been able to establish a dominant run of form.

Just 9 points separate the 7 teams in the Permiership going into the final round.

A mere 4 poitns separate first placed Canterbury from 5th placed Auckland.

Defenses have been stretched. The NPC is typically a competition with more attacking prowess than defense. That said, there were some very tight Ranfurly Shield encounters in Invercargill.

Where they are at

1. Canterbury

One week, Canterbury exerts their rennaisance with a dominant display over high-flying Taranaki (27-0) and the next week they are beaten by Bay of Plenty whose form appeared to have left them after 4 straight defeats.

The Cantabs beat Auckland in a high-scoring and exciting opening match at Eden Park. Then they lost the Ranfurly Shield to Southland in a 3 point nail biter.

They lost again to Wellington but won their next 2 as they started to gather momentum.

3. Taranaki

After losing their first match to Wellington, they got it together, notching up 5 wins in a row before faltering badly to Canterbury (27-0) but then bouncing back to win the Ranfurly Shield from Southland in a nail-biter.

Should they make the final, I believe they have the team and the poise to win this year. All the talk has been about Aaron Cruden and fair enough as the kid is going very well but Taranaki’s playmaker Beauden Barrett has the head for big games and could yet emerge the heir apparent to Dan Carter.

2. Waikato

Waikato registered some big wins in the middle of the competition including beating Canterbury in Christchurch before being stopped in their tracks by a rampant Manawatu side who put 54 points on the Mooloo men.

They shook that loss off to beat Wellington in their last outing but have lacked consistency.

So what’s going to happen from here?

Waikato (currently in 2nd place with 28 points) play Auckland (5th with 25 points).

This should be a classic encounter with everything to play for. Waikato will think they have an edge up front but Charlie Famuina is back to his devastating best. Waikato aren’t the same attacking force withotu Steven Donald. Trent Renata just doesn’t get the most out of a talented backline. Auckland will look to exploit that.

Canterbury (1st/29 points) play Otago

Otago are playing for pride and will not be doing any favours for their nothern neighbours.

Despite going into the final round on top, if Canterbury falter they will probably not make the final.

Southland (7th/20 points) host Bay of Plenty (4th/26 points)

Bay of Plenty are only 3 points off first placed Canterbury so they have everything to play for in their last match of the season at Invercargill’s Rugby Park.

Southland on the other hand are playing for their lives. They lost the Shield in their last outing and are facing relegation. They may know their fate going into this match should Wellington beat North Harbour in their last outing on Friday night. It may be down to pride for the southerners.

Taranaki (3rd/27 points) host Hawkes Bay in their first Ranfurly Shield defense.

The Magpies are guaranteed a place in the Championship final where they will play Manawatu but they are not only playing for the Ranfurly Shield, with a victory they could wrestle home advantage from Manawatu for their final that will determine who will go up into the Premiership next season.

A wonderful match awaits.

Hosea Gear, Wellington & All Blacks

Is Hosea Gear the most unlucky of the ditched All Blacks?

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Hosea Gear, Wellington & All Blacks

Hosea Gear is big, strong, quick and capable. A potential match-winner every time he steps onto the field but he has been left out of the All Black squad of 30 chosen for the World Cup.

The selectors have opted for just one specialist wing in the young Zac Guildford.

  • Corey Jane is a fullback/wing utility
  • Israel Dagg is a fullback who can play in the wing
  • Isaia Toeava played those two positions and can also play in the midfield
  • Richard Kahui is a centre who has been used on the wing for the All Blacks before

So you could say there is plenty of options and plenty of cover.

New Zealand have a lot of talent on the wings at the moment.

  • 46 test veteran Sitivini Sivivatu was also left out
  • Ben Smith’s form wasn’t good enough for a recall
  • Joe Rocokoco can’t get a look in
  • Lelia ‘Flash’ Masaga is scoring plenty of tries for Bay of Plenty but his name wasn’t even mentioned among the World Cup hopefuls

    So where has Gear failed in the selectors eyes? And is it fair?

    The obvious issue is that of how much he gets himself involved in a match.

    It can be tough on the wing. The run of play in a game of rugby can tend towards one touchline only and opportunities to even touch the ball can be rare let alone do something with it.

    Many factors can influence this.

    • Wind can determine which touchline kickers aim for when kicking for the line (penalties, free kicks and tactically).
    • The tactics of the opposition can be focused on directing a lot of play down a certain side of the field where they believe they have an advantage
    • Other tactics may be more defensive – staying away from one side (or one player) that they believe could disadvantage them

    Certainly it may not be a good tactic to kick long into the area of the field where Gear is situated. He will most likely run the ball back and he could very well break the line and score or set up a try – it has happened before.

    In a tight match – an important test match – defensive lines can be up very quickly trying to snuff out attacking movements before the ball makes it to the outsides. This is a tactic employed by many of the All Blacks’ opponents. New Zealand has strength out wide.

    Enterprising play, speed and individual brilliance often result in tries and so it is only natural that defensive strategies would be devised to combat this.

    But that is all about the opposition. What about the play of Gear’s team and the man himself?

    In the last test against the Springboks, the All Blacks did not get to direct a lot of play. Much of the attacking was done in response to kicks or broken play and there’s never any knowing how that is going to turn out.

    As it happened, Isaia Toeava was way more prominent on the right wing than Gear was on the left.

    In a rear left hand attacking movement, first five Colin Slade gave Gear a forward pass so we didn’t get to see Gear stride out in space.

    Does Hosea Gear get himself involved enough?

    It can’t be easy for a wing on the quiet side of play to get his hands on the ball.

    The phrase ‘go looking for work’ is the classic cliche that comes out when a wing gets into positions to carry the ball when play is not directed down one flank or other.

    Joe Rocokoco had the ball a lot more times that his position might normally get when he played for Auckland recently against Bay of Plenty. He may have been inspired by his last performance at Eden Park as he heads off to France but the point is that he got himself involved – a lot!

    Zac Guildford is also industrious.

    I do not know what it is like playing on the wing but many of our top outsides manage to be really quite prominent in matches even when play does not necessarily go their way.

    When playing for the All Blacks, Corey Jane seems to create opportunities from situations where he has very little space to work in and opponents in front of him. Zac Guildford often hits the ball up when his team is trying to work their way up field.

    Bottom line: the players chosen ahead of Gear do all seem to be more involved in matches and they do so on a regular basis

    I watched Hosea Gear play in the NPC against Northland a couple of weeks ago.

    While he combined with his insides to create opportunities, you would not have said that he stood head and shoulders above the other players on the field that night or that he was particularly prominent in Wellington’s back play.

    Is it a mistake to leave Gear out?

    Ticking boxes vs X-Factor

    On the other side of the argument, there will be situations on attack where Hosea Gear’s physicality would give him an advantage – where only he could score a try in a particular situation. While he doesn’t quite have the physique of Jonah Lomu, situations do arise where Gear can get over the line in very challenging circumstances.

    The same may not be true of Zac Guildford.

    Gear could also have greater impact off the bench. A late break could result in an opportunity where 2 defenders stand in the way of the try-line and the All Black attacker. Hosea Gear above all others is the guy we want to have the ball in that situation.

    It could be argued that none of New Zealand’s wing options that were chosen offer a great physical presence. Corey Jane is really quite a slightly built guy and Guildford is not much bigger.

    In a world cup physicality on the wing just may be needed. Hopefully we won’t be caught short when it matters the most.

    Themes in this year’s NPC #1 Returning ex-pats

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    I’ve talked about the amount of departures from New Zealand rugby that have happened over the past 12 months. And there are more planned after the World Cup.

    But it’s not all one-way traffic.

    In 2011 we have seen the return of some very capable players to the ITM Cup (NPC). These guys are making a significant contribution and doing their part to enhance the great spectacle that is NPC rugby.

    Tony Brown (Otago)

    The ex-All Black returned to New Zealand to help out the Highlanders in this year’s Super Rugby competition after they were hit by a series of injuries.

    Brown then took to the field for Otago in the ITM Cup and is going great guns for Otago challenging the line, directing play and creating opportunities for others.

    His age is not a factor, he’s playing well and has been a large part of the Highlanders and Oago’s resurgence over the last 6 months. It’s great to have him back.

    Willie Walker (North Harbour)

    Willie Walker played for North Harbour against Bay of Plenty in the second match of the season and he went well, slotting into fullback like he never left.

    Willie Walker

    Willie Walker - 1 of several Kiwis who have made a return to NPC this year

    Bryce Williams (Northland)

    The ex-Auckland lock is in the middle of the Taniwha pack. He’s doing the hard yards, calling the lineouts and getting around the paddock. Northland lost Dean Budd to Japan but Williams more than makes up for the gap left in the Taniwha lineout.

    Bryce Williams. Northland

    Williams may get an opportunity for the Blues in 2012

    Jamie Nutbrown (Bay of Plenty)

    Jamie Nutbrown, Bay of Plenty

    When I heard Nutbrown was coming back to the Bay I assumed that the man who replaced him – Taniela Moa – was away off somewhere else. Moa had done very well for the Steamers last season, scoring a hatfull of tries and providing strong distribution from the base of the ruck.

    But in a truncated season where teams play 3 times in the space of 7 days, a strong squad is critical so the Bay are lucky to have 2 highly competent number 9s this season.

    Brent Wilson (North Harbour)

    The rangy loose forward started the NPC season with a blinder in Dunedin. He has been away for a few years but hasn’t lost any sharpness. North Harbour need experience as they try and get out of a slump and huge number 8 Matt Luamanu needs a mentor who will keep him honest and focused.

    Rudi Wulf (North Harbour)

    Rudi Wulf, North Harbour

    Another player who was not away for long, Wulf has returned to provide much needed penetration in the struggling North Harbour midfield. His strength, speed and good form should see him return to the Blues in next season’s Super Rugby competition.

    Dave Bright (Tasman)

    The hard working loose forward is somewhat of a professional rugby journeyman who plays in both hemispheres. He was last in Tasman in 2009 and is a welcome addition this season providing go forward and hardened experience.

    Reuben Thorne

    Reuben Thorne, CanterburyCanterbury legend and ex-All Black captain, Reuben Thorne is back in the red and black jersey helping the young Canterbury side as they compete in a tough competition with none of their All Blacks. He’s been coming off the bench but the experience on and off the field is invaluable for Canterbury as they look to bring on their next tier players.

    Not every returning ex-pat has made a great contribution however …

    Luke McAllister, North Harbour

    Dual hemisphere teams pay off for Stormers owners

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    The people who own the Western Stormers super rugby franchise also own English champions, Saracens in London.

    In their quest for a dual hemisphere double, they have recruited Schalk Brits back into the Stormers squad to play the Crusaders in the semi-final of the southern hemisphere’s biggest rugby prize.

    It’s not surprising that players need to be drafted in as injury cover when squads get depleted in what can be a brutal rugby competition.

    The Crusaders called on Brent Ward who was playing club rugby in Auckland after returning from a 3 year stint in France.

    I guess it is a little surprising when it involves players who have left the country, signed with another team and are still with that team. Players of the class of Schalk Brits – an exceptional athlete.

    In most instances the club who holds a players’ contract is never going to release them to play for another team regardless of whether they are in a different competition even if it is the off-season.

    This is where it pays off to own a team in a different competition. Not only are there additional playing resources but players remain ‘in the system’ – they are not lost to a foreign club in a foreign competition. They are still around and available to switch hemispheres.

    As part of his Saracens contract ex-All Black Chris Jack was required to play a Currie Cup season for Western Province before he could come home. He made a significant contribution to the team, strengthening their tight five and scoring a try in his first 20 seconds of play.

    In the late 1990s Auckland was involved in serious talks with Blackheath – then in the English second division. Auckland coach Graham Henry took training sessions at the Kent-based club and 1-2 players travelled between the countries for experience.

    I was at Blackheath the next season after a promising young English player had spent the (English) summer playing for the Auckland colts and living with Craig Dowd. Then Auckland player John Ratcliffe was put up by Blackheath to play in the English second division.

    No deal was reached but the theory was sound – to extend the playing and coaching resources of a strong rugby organisation by reaching out to the northern hemisphere.

    It looks like it is paying dividends for both the Stormers and Saracens.

    Perspectives on the state of the Hurricanes

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    As with most press coverage and feedback from punters and commentaries alike, only about 10% of it shows any real insight.

    Rather than wade on with more rhetoric, here are a couple of points to provide some perspective.

    1. Track record
    In 14 seasons of Super Rugby, the Hurricanes have made just 1 final (losing to the Crusaders in 2006).
    They made the semi-finals 5 further times.
    Worst finish: 2nd last in 2004
    2010 finish: 8th

    All except the 1997 semi-final finish were under previous coach, Colin Cooper and involved some of New Zealand’s best rugby players: Christian Cullen, Tana Umaga, Jerry Collins, etc.

    2. Jamie Joseph may have done exactly the same thing as Mark Hammett
    Joseph was the guy who left Corey Jane and Ma’a Nonu on the bench when the 2 were available for 1-2 NPC games during his time as Wellington Lions coach.

    He didn’t cave to All Black coaches whims (amd Corey Jane’s tweets) to play the back line stars.

    3. It’s going to take time to transform the Hurricanes – regardless of who does it
    It took the Crusaders 2 years and a complete top-to-bottom revamp before results improved.

    There are several reasons why the Hurricanes may take longer, including

    • The ethnicity, playing styles and geography are completely different to Canterbury

      The Crusaders have always kept hold of the bulk of their squad outside of the Super Rugby season.
      Depending upon form, the Hurricanes have always had a strong contingent of Taranaki and Hawkes Bay players.
      The Blues are the second best performing NZ franchise and that was from a time when 90% of the team were from the Auckland NPC ranks – continuity and culture are the success formula
    • The 2012 season is going to be difficult
      With the mass exodus of players, the make-up of the NZ teams will be young and fresh. It will take time for them to settle.
      Man U were not built in a day
      Nor has their success been easily copied by other football organisations – just because Hammett has been part of a successful Crusaders outfit does not mean he will be able to implement an equally successful regime in Wellington.
      Also, Kiwis will be very slow to get back into the swing of supporting rugby. The World Cup will leave people rugby’d out. The season starts very early in the NZ year when people are still enjoying summer. Crowds are always poor early on and this trend will be drawn out in 2012.

    Must applaud retention of Dan Carter but is it enough?

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    We’ve talked a lot about all the players who have left or are planning to leave New Zealand and so we must applaud the NZRFU for retaining Dan Carter.

    The contract has flexibility for playing stints in high paying competitions in the years between world cups and no doubt includes the highest salary ever paid to a New Zealand sportsperson plying their trade in New Zealand.

    Sonny-Bill Williams has even more flexibility in his contract. Believe it or not, the Crusaders and All Black centre is due to box in a professional bout during a bye weekend.

    I’ve been hoping to see a well thought out medium-term strategy for the preservation of the All Blacks brand. So far there have been flexible contracts for 3 chosen players.
    [Ali Williams has had a planned sojourn to the USA for some time]

    No doubt there was everything the Union could afford thrown at Carl Hayman to try and lure the highly accomplished tight head prop back to NZ for the world cup.

    The same would have been done for Nick Evans bit both men chose to remain in Europe and who can blame them. The Carter, Williams and Williams contracts clearly gave them what they needed and Hayman and Evans’ ones do the same for them.

    The Issue
    If current big paying contract offers continue in the way they have done through a global recession, the likelihood that the NZRFU can afford to retain the best players becomes less and less likely.

    The options?

    A. Get more money so you can pay them more

    OR

    B. Come up with a model that works with the top players playing in foreign competitions

    The risk of not coming up with a genuine, workable solution is that the All Blacks brand becomes diluted and devalued – devalued by the stakeholders including you and me and devalued by sponsors like those who pay millions to outfit the team.

    A lot of people treat the All Blacks like they are the Brazil of football. Favoured to win any contest anywhere in the world whether it be a one-off Bledisloe, a mid-week tour match against Munster or every World Cup ever played.

    The reality is that our World Cup record reads more like that of England – ‘We won it in ’66 but haven’t really looked like winning it since’.

    This is harsh on Laurie Mains and the ’95 team I know but a fact is a fact – we haven’t won it since we hosted the first tournament in 1987. That’s 5 in a row!

    5 times people favored the All Blacks to win and on 4 occasions we didn’t even make the final.

    How long before the secret is out – that we are not the best rugby team in the world?

    And how long before the value of the All Blacks brand suffers?

    The powers that be have got to find ways of generating revenue outside of the News Limited deal – ways that allow players to play their rugby where they choose and it not come down to an argument of salary vs country.

    Freedom from News Ltd means freedom from SANZAR, Super Rugby and the Tri-Nations.

    This would come at a huge cost. The deal is worth around $35 million in TV rights.

    Bit it does cover pretty much all rugby in NZ and all All Black matches.

    How many other codes do this?

    Would our football team have gotten close to qualifying for the FIFA word cup?

    Ideas
    North v South
    Revive the old rivalry and turn it into a State of Origin with similar parochialism and fervor. The resulting Kangaroo side that comes out of the State of Origin series is unbeatable.

    Forget the farcical Probables v Possibles crap and give the people something they can really get excited about.

    Europe v Asia
    See how the Franks brothers measure up to Carl Hayman and what would happen if Nick Evans squared off with Dan Carter.

    These would not only be opportunities for locals to see their favorite Kiwi players but to gain a greater appreciation for the All Blacks brand.

    Also, it might allow for an even greater playing pool for All Black selectors. Players eligible for Pacific Island nations as well as New Zealand may not feel compelled to make a decision.

    Jared Payne

    More and more players announce their departure plans

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    Jared Payne

    Jared Payne - another player lost to New Zealand rugby

    New Zealand players are leaving to play in the Northerm Hemisphere at a rate of almost one per fortnight.

    Last was John Afoa, this time it’s Jared Payne.

    The Blues and Northland centre/fullback is in the form of his career.

    He is the best performing centre in the New Zealand Super Rugby franchises – Now he is lost to New Zealand rugby.

    The 2012 Super 15 is not going to be worth watching. Even if they make it free to get in, you are still going to struggle to get a decent crowd along to watch second-rate teams.

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